Spain's figures were 20K cases 1k deaths. So assume 5-7K hospital cases?
To use those figures, if that was for at one end of the scale eg 100,000 exposures then multiply it by 700 in the UKs case: 700k deaths and up to 4.9 million people needing high-dependency hospital beds at around the same time if we all mingle freely.
But we don't know how many exposures it really is. Until we can test loads more to find out how many have had it, how many exposures produced 20k cases, we don't know if the reality is much worse than that  or much better than that . Until we do we can't plan with any confidence so not spreading it by mingling is the best idea for right now.

Last edited by anders (3/21/2020 10:49 am)

Another 600 today in Italy. 

Glad we've gone into so-called lockdown.

Prince Charlie's got it. They are claiming those over 70 will have a DNR notice if they are in Intensive care. Bet every penny you have he's not on the list.


Do Not Resuscitate 

anders wrote:

IJ - what's really going on in the States with Trump & Covid-19. Are some of his supporters starting to question his "it'll all be over soon" statements before it got worse and his 'getting America back to work soon' when that could cost lives stance? Or are we over here maybe just hearing a nuanced version of these things and it's not the same story over there?
Could be of course that his support is so entrenched that these things don't matter to them, similar to here in recent years on things.

Honestly? Fuck knows. 
I don't watch any of the political media over here, as I'm no particularly interested in their "which right wing party is best" pissing contest. Another thing that folk back home don't grasp (and nor did I til I moved here) is that the USA is as much of a country as Europe is. Folk up here in Connecticut have about as much in common with people in Arizona as Scots do with those in Belarus, so there's no really a "everybody thinks this" mindset. 
All I can say is that in the North East/NY area folk generally think he's an absolute clown who's fucking this up royally, but equally I'd imagine the lads in Kentucky etc think the exact opposite.